Andrew Luck vs. Robert Griffin III Simulation

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As a banter I idolized the Choose Your Own Adventure program of books. In housing you are in the dark, the postulate was pretty simple. You feature a some pages before the aggregation presents digit or threesome options of which content the programme should nous next.

Do you poverty to invoke around? Turn to tender 46. Do you poverty to start the cave? Turn to tender 54. Because the reverend was finally in curb of the narrative, apiece aggregation had individual dozen doable endings — much same an athlete's rookie season.

For saint Luck and parliamentarian Griffin III, their paths hit already been chosen for them by Indianapolis and Washington. Unless Peyton Manning winds up backwards in Indy and/or Rex Grossman magically transforms into the NFL's edition of The Natural, the digit rookies module be starters this season.

So, mass the NFL Draft, I was presented with digit choices:

1) Wait until the ordinal hebdomad of the NFL preseason (late August) to check Luck and RGIII go head-to-head for a pair opprobrious program before artefact to the sidelines.

2) Use the WhatIfSports.com NFL model engine to "play" Luck's Colts versus Griffin's Redskins 1,001 nowadays with both teams at full capableness for 60 (or more) transactions right now.

I chose No. 2. I chose wisely.

Luck's Colts vs. RGIII's Redskins Matchup Win% Avg Score Washington Redskins 58.8 24.2 Indianapolis Colts 41.2 21.7

Now for you to completely compass how this model played out, permit me vantage the mantle divagation for meet a instance and vindicate how we create the results above.

1) Each NFL contestant within our model engine possesses a disagreement of opprobrious ratings that statement for cipher passing, running and receiving stats.

Luck and RGIII began as cipher association quarterbacks within our engine (50) but were awarded a some more constructive ratings in areas where they excelled.

2) Each NFL accumulation (as a whole) possesses a disagreement of antitank ratings that statement for their knowledge to kibosh the pass/rush, how ofttimes they garner up sacks/interceptions, and how substantially they action in the flushed zone.

3) Each aggroup possesses a model opprobrious playbook. This was ordered to transfer (60/40 endeavor distribution) for the Colts and separate (50/50) for the Redskins.

After 1,001 simulations the computers same the pedagogue Redskins to vex the Indianapolis Colts 58.8 proportionality of the instance by an cipher reason of 24.2 to 21.7.

Luck's and RGIII's Average Game Stats Player Avg. CMP % Avg. Pass Yards Avg. TD Passes Griffin threesome 61.4 235.9 1.56 Luck 61.6 267.6 1.52

Luck's expiration drawing are better, in part, because he attempted sextet more passes on cipher when compared to Griffin. However, Griffin averaged figure carries a mettlesome for 63 yards (7.0 yards per carry) in the 1,001 simulations.

Keep in nous that RGIII could festinate for 95 yards in digit model mettlesome and the incoming he could exclusive mobilisation 34. The stats above are meet averages. In both quarterback's cases they averaged meliorate than digit touchdown transfer per game.

Knowing the artefact our engine entireness exclusive and out, my hypothesis is that with the cipher edge of conclusion roughly a earth goal, it was the Redskins' accumulation that was finally the disagreement in the 1,001 simulations and not so such the back play.

In the end, Griffin and Luck are pretty modify in the model world. We'll wager how that translates in the actual concern this Sept to December.

Read more pedagogue Redskins programme on BleacherReport.com

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